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Albion FC vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:00

Albion FC

PPG 1.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Progreso

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 48% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+25.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.4%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-110.2%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 47.6% 2.10 +14.2%

Draw 23.9% 32.3% 3.10 -15.6%

Away win 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 45.5% 2.20 +18.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 51.5% 54.1% 1.85 -4.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 44.4% 2.25 +25.6%

Away O1.5 22.7% 29.4% 3.40 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -38.8%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albion FC1.9

Progreso0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBION FC · PPG 1.15

PROGRESO · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Albion FC (H) 54.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +14.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.6%

Progreso (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albion FC face Progreso in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albion FC a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Progreso 22%, so Albion FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Albion FC and 0.8 for Progreso (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albion FC are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.62 for Progreso. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +36.7%.

Albion FC vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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