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Tottenham vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 36 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:00

Tottenham

PPG 0.65 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Leeds Utd

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.3%0-25.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.9%1-111.3%1-28.1%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.7%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.1%3-14.5%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 53.5% 1.87 -26.9%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 35.1% 26.7% 3.75 +31.6%

Over 2.5 59.4% 57.8% 1.73 +2.8%

Over 3.5 34.6% 35.7% 2.80 -3.1%

BTTS 58.6% 60.6% 1.65 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.6%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham1.5

Leeds Utd1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM · PPG 0.65

LEEDS UTD · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.65), Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham (H) 39.1%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -26.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Leeds Utd (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham face Leeds Utd in England - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Leeds Utd 35%, so Tottenham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tottenham and 1.4 for Leeds Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 0.82 for Leeds Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Tottenham vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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