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Yverdon vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:15

Yverdon

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rapperswil

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.0%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.4%1-17.4%1-25.1%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-19.0%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.3%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-18.0%4+-25.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Draw 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Away win 24.0% 23.1% 4.33 +2.4%

Over 2.5 63.3% 65.4% 1.53 -3.1%

Over 3.5 53.0% 44.4% 2.25 +19.3%

BTTS 62.5% 63.7% 1.57 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–1✓ 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yverdon2.4

Rapperswil1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YVERDON · PPG 1.88

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Yverdon (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Rapperswil (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yverdon face Rapperswil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yverdon a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Rapperswil 24%, so Yverdon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Yverdon and 1.4 for Rapperswil (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yverdon are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.12 for Rapperswil. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Yverdon vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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