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Vaduz vs Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:15

Vaduz

PPG 2.76 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aarau

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.3%0-22.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.5%1-17.5%1-26.2%1-33.4%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.8%3-16.3%3-25.2%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-16.0%4+-25.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 40.0% 2.50 +27.3%

Draw 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Away win 25.4% 41.7% 2.40 -23.4%

Over 2.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Over 3.5 54.9% 45.5% 2.20 +20.8%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaduz2.2

Aarau1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VADUZ · PPG 2.76

AARAU · PPG 2.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.76) > Away EXCELLENT (2.12)

Win probability 1X2

Vaduz (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +27.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Aarau (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaduz face Aarau in Switzerland - Challenge League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaduz a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Aarau 25%, so Vaduz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Vaduz and 1.7 for Aarau (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaduz are averaging 2.76 points per game versus 2.12 for Aarau. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Vaduz vs Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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