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Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 17:00

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Radomiak Radom

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.2%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.1%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 50.8% 1.97 -12.5%

Draw 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Away win 28.6% 27.4% 3.65 +2.6%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0✓ 6.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cracovia Krakow1.5

Radomiak Radom1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.47

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Cracovia Krakow (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -12.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Radomiak Radom (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cracovia Krakow face Radomiak Radom in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cracovia Krakow a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Radomiak Radom 29%, so Cracovia Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.2 for Radomiak Radom (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.80 for Radomiak Radom. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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