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RB Bragantino W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:00

RB Bragantino W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gremio W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.7%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.3%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.4%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -1.3%

Over 2.5 57.9% 51.3% 1.95 +12.9%

Over 3.5 32.4% 29.9% 3.35 +8.5%

BTTS 55.8% 56.5% 1.77 -1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Bragantino W1.7

Gremio W1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RB BRAGANTINO W · PPG 2.00

GREMIO W · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

RB Bragantino W (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -10.1%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

Gremio W (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Bragantino W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Bragantino W a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Gremio W 25%, so RB Bragantino W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for RB Bragantino W and 1.2 for Gremio W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Bragantino W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 0-3.

RB Bragantino W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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