Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction & Tips

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France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 33 Stadium de Toulouse· Toulouse Sunday, May 10, 2026 19:00

Toulouse PPG 1.31

2-1 HIT CS5

Lyon PPG 1.44

Home· +48.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.2%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +48.1%

Draw 25.4%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -0.6%

Away 40.3%

Odds: 1.72 EV: -30.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.0% Odds: 1.77 -6.2%

Over 3.5 28.6% Odds: 2.90 -10.2%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.73 -5.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Toulouse

1.23

Lyon

1.47

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+48.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.44)