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Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Toulouse

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lyon

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.9%0-27.3%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 23.1% 4.33 +48.1%

Draw 25.4% 25.6% 3.90 -0.6%

Away win 40.3% 58.1% 1.72 -30.7%

Over 2.5 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Over 3.5 28.6% 34.5% 2.90 -10.2%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toulouse1.2

Lyon1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.31

LYON · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Toulouse (H) 34.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +48.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.6%

Lyon (A) 40.3%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toulouse face Lyon in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toulouse a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Lyon 40%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Toulouse and 1.5 for Lyon (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toulouse are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.44 for Lyon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +48.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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