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Rennes vs Paris FC Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Rennes

PPG 1.94 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paris FC

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.1%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-110.9%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 66.7% 1.50 -26.1%

Draw 25.6% 22.5% 4.45 +8.3%

Away win 25.1% 17.9% 5.60 +24.3%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rennes1.8

Paris FC1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RENNES · PPG 1.94

PARIS FC · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Rennes (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -26.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +8.3%

Paris FC (A) 25.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rennes face Paris FC in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rennes a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Paris FC 25%, so Rennes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rennes and 1.2 for Paris FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rennes are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.19 for Paris FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Rennes vs Paris FC Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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