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Monaco vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Monaco

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lille

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.1%0-25.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.1%1-110.9%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.8%3-14.3%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 41.7% 2.40 -10.5%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 36.4% 38.5% 2.60 -5.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 61.7% 1.62 -3.5%

Over 3.5 37.0% 38.5% 2.60 -3.8%

BTTS 58.8% 65.4% 1.53 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monaco1.5

Lille1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONACO · PPG 2.00

LILLE · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Monaco (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -10.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

Lille (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monaco face Lille in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monaco a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Lille 36%, so Monaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Monaco and 1.5 for Lille (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monaco are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.81 for Lille. This match finished 0-1.

Monaco vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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