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Metz vs Lorient Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Metz

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lorient

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.3%0-27.8%0-34.4%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.7%1-111.3%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.0%2-16.8%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 31.7% 3.15 -7.6%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 45.2% 47.6% 2.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 59.3% 58.8% 1.70 +0.8%

Over 3.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metz1.2

Lorient1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

METZ · PPG 0.63

LORIENT · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Metz (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -7.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Lorient (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metz face Lorient in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metz a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Lorient 45%, so Lorient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Metz and 1.7 for Lorient (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metz are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.75 for Lorient. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Metz vs Lorient Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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