Today / France - Ligue 1 / Le Havre vs Marseille

Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Le Havre

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Marseille

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.6%0-27.6%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.7%1-112.4%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.1%2-17.3%2-25.2%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.0%3-12.8%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 28.6% 3.50 +16.6%

Draw 26.2% 27.4% 3.65 -2.6%

Away win 40.6% 50.8% 1.97 -20.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Over 3.5 26.5% 38.2% 2.62 -18.3%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.6%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Havre1.2

Marseille1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LE HAVRE · PPG 1.44

MARSEILLE · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Le Havre (H) 33.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +16.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.6%

Marseille (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Havre face Marseille in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Havre a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Marseille 41%, so Marseille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Le Havre and 1.4 for Marseille (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Havre are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.19 for Marseille. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 1 Predictions