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Auxerre vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Auxerre

PPG 1.19 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nice

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.3%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.8%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 43.1% 2.32 +4.2%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Away win 26.7% 33.9% 2.95 -12.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 22.0% 30.8% 3.25 -17.1%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1✓ 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auxerre1.4

Nice1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AUXERRE · PPG 1.19

NICE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Auxerre (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +4.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Nice (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auxerre face Nice in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auxerre a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Nice 27%, so Auxerre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Auxerre and 1.0 for Nice (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auxerre are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.75 for Nice. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Auxerre vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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