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Angers vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Angers

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Strasbourg

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.6%0-28.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.6%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 36.5% 2.74 -14.1%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 43.9% 41.0% 2.44 +7.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Over 3.5 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

BTTS 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.4%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angers1.1

Strasbourg1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGERS · PPG 1.38

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Angers (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -14.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Strasbourg (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angers face Strasbourg in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angers a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Strasbourg 44%, so Strasbourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Angers and 1.5 for Strasbourg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angers are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.27 for Strasbourg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Angers vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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