Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Hoffenheim B vs Saarbrucken

Hoffenheim B vs Saarbrucken Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:30

Hoffenheim B

PPG 1.11 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Saarbrucken

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.8%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.0%1-110.2%1-27.5%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.7%3-15.3%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 34.5% 2.90 +25.9%

Draw 26.3% 26.0% 3.85 +0.8%

Away win 30.3% 46.5% 2.15 -34.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 70.4% 1.42 -14.5%

Over 3.5 40.3% 50.0% 2.00 -19.4%

BTTS 58.8% 74.1% 1.35 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoffenheim B1.8

Saarbrucken1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOFFENHEIM B · PPG 1.11

SAARBRUCKEN · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Hoffenheim B (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +25.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.8%

Saarbrucken (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim B face Saarbrucken in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim B a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Saarbrucken 30%, so Hoffenheim B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hoffenheim B and 1.5 for Saarbrucken (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim B are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.72 for Saarbrucken. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Hoffenheim B vs Saarbrucken Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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