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Csakvari vs Soroksar Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:00

Csakvari

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Soroksar

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.3%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.9%1-111.0%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.5%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 50.0% 2.00 -2.6%

Draw 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -11.8%

Away win 25.4% 31.3% 3.20 -11.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 57.1% 1.75 +3.8%

Over 3.5 34.6% 35.3% 2.83 -2.1%

BTTS 58.8% 60.6% 1.65 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0✓ 8.9%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Csakvari1.7

Soroksar1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CSAKVARI · PPG 1.57

SOROKSAR · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Csakvari (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.8%

Soroksar (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Csakvari face Soroksar in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Csakvari a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Soroksar 25%, so Csakvari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Csakvari and 1.2 for Soroksar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Csakvari are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.64 for Soroksar. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Csakvari vs Soroksar Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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