Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Panevezys vs Kauno Zalgiris

Panevezys vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Panevezys

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-110.7%0-212.7%0-310.1%0-4+10.5%1 1-03.3%1-17.7%1-29.2%1-37.3%1-4+7.6%2 2-01.2%2-12.8%2-23.3%2-32.6%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 15.6% 6.40 -10.8%

Draw 21.6% 25.6% 3.90 -9.5%

Away win 65.6% 69.0% 1.45 -4.9%

Over 2.5 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 33.3% 3.00 +12.5%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 66% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–3 10.1%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 1–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevezys0.7

Kauno Zalgiris2.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.60

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Panevezys (H) 12.8%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -10.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.5%

Kauno Zalgiris (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevezys face Kauno Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevezys a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Kauno Zalgiris 66%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Panevezys and 2.4 for Kauno Zalgiris (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevezys are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.60 for Kauno Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Panevezys vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions