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Gori vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Gori

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Samtredia

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-113.7%0-27.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-16.7%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% — — —

Draw 29.2% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gori1.0

Samtredia1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GORI · PPG 1.20

SAMTREDIA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gori (H) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Samtredia (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gori face Samtredia in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gori a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Samtredia 36%, so Samtredia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gori and 1.0 for Samtredia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gori are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Samtredia. This match finished 2-1.

Gori vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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