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West Ham Utd vs Arsenal Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:30

West Ham Utd

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Arsenal

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 63% chance

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-111.6%0-211.4%0-37.5%0-4+5.8%1 1-05.1%1-110.0%1-29.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.0%2 2-02.2%2-14.3%2-24.3%2-32.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.1% 18.2% 5.50 -10.2%

Draw 26.3% 25.0% 4.00 +3.1%

Away win 58.6% 64.1% 1.56 -8.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.7% 2.65 -16.3%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob52.3%

A 59% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 0–2 11.4%

#3 0–1✓ 11.6%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Ham Utd0.9

Arsenal2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST HAM UTD · PPG 1.12

ARSENAL · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

West Ham Utd (H) 15.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.1%

Arsenal (A) 58.6%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Ham Utd face Arsenal in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Ham Utd a 15% chance, the draw 26% and Arsenal 59%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for West Ham Utd and 2.0 for Arsenal (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Ham Utd are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.88 for Arsenal. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 0-1.

West Ham Utd vs Arsenal Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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