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Karcag SE vs Tiszakecske Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

Karcag SE

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tiszakecske

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.9%0-25.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 40.8% 2.45 -6.7%

Draw 27.7% 34.7% 2.88 -12.1%

Away win 34.3% 37.0% 2.70 -7.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 23.9% 30.5% 3.28 -13.0%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karcag SE1.3

Tiszakecske1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.57

TISZAKECSKE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Karcag SE (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -6.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.1%

Tiszakecske (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karcag SE face Tiszakecske in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karcag SE a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Tiszakecske 34%, so Karcag SE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karcag SE and 1.2 for Tiszakecske (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karcag SE are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Tiszakecske. This match finished 0-1.

Karcag SE vs Tiszakecske Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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