Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Viktoria Koln vs Alemannia A.

Viktoria Koln vs Alemannia A. Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:30

Viktoria Koln

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Alemannia A.

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.7%0-25.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.1%1-110.3%1-28.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.0%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 33.9% 2.95 +9.7%

Draw 26.3% 27.4% 3.65 -2.4%

Away win 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Over 3.5 40.4% 44.4% 2.25 -9.1%

BTTS 58.8% 70.4% 1.42 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.8%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viktoria Koln1.5

Alemannia A.1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKTORIA KOLN · PPG 1.50

ALEMANNIA A. · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Viktoria Koln (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +9.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.4%

Alemannia A. (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viktoria Koln face Alemannia A. in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viktoria Koln a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Alemannia A. 36%, so Viktoria Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Viktoria Koln and 1.7 for Alemannia A. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viktoria Koln are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.78 for Alemannia A.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Viktoria Koln vs Alemannia A. Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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