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Banga vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Banga

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

TransINVEST

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.1%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.8%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 37.7% 2.65 -2.5%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 36.0% 41.7% 2.40 -13.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Over 3.5 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

BTTS 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga1.3

TransINVEST1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.67

TRANSINVEST · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -2.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

TransINVEST (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face TransINVEST in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 37% chance, the draw 27% and TransINVEST 36%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Banga and 1.2 for TransINVEST (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for TransINVEST. This match finished 2-2.

Banga vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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