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Frechen vs SF Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 26 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:30

Frechen

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

SF Duren

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.5%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.3%1-12.0%1-21.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-02.6%2-14.3%2-23.5%2-31.9%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-16.0%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-119.3%4+-215.6%4+-38.4%4+-4+4.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 14.8% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 83.0% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob66.7%

H 64% / xG 4.2-1.6 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.2%

#2 3–1 6.0%

#3 5–1 5.2%

#4 4–2 5.0%

#5 3–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frechen4.2

SF Duren1.6

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 83.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FRECHEN · PPG 1.58

SF DUREN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Frechen (H) 64.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SF Duren (A) 14.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frechen face SF Duren in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frechen a 64% chance, the draw 21% and SF Duren 15%, so Frechen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Frechen and 1.6 for SF Duren (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frechen are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.33 for SF Duren. This match finished 2-0.

Frechen vs SF Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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