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The Bees vs Leicesterford Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

The Bees

PPG 1.79 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leicesterford

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-18.1%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.6%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.4%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.0%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Draw 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Away win 22.3% 30.3% 3.30 -15.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 40.0% 2.50 +14.5%

Over 3.5 16.0% 21.7% 4.60 -15.8%

BTTS 48.2% 49.8% 2.01 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Bees1.4

Leicesterford0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

THE BEES · PPG 1.79

LEICESTERFORD · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

The Bees (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

Leicesterford (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

The Bees face Leicesterford in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Bees a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Leicesterford 22%, so The Bees are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for The Bees and 0.7 for Leicesterford (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Bees are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.43 for Leicesterford. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 2-1.

The Bees vs Leicesterford Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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