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Midlands Wand. vs Lerumo Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Midlands Wand.

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Lerumo Lions

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-113.2%0-26.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.2%2-16.9%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 46.5% 2.15 -18.7%

Draw 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Away win 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

Over 2.5 36.0% 42.0% 2.38 -14.3%

Over 3.5 13.8% 20.8% 4.80 -20.3%

BTTS 48.2% 49.3% 2.03 -2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1✓ 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midlands Wand.1.0

Lerumo Lions1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLANDS WAND. · PPG 1.64

LERUMO LIONS · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Midlands Wand. (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -18.7%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Lerumo Lions (A) 30.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midlands Wand. face Lerumo Lions in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midlands Wand. a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Lerumo Lions 31%, so Midlands Wand. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Midlands Wand. and 1.0 for Lerumo Lions (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midlands Wand. are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.21 for Lerumo Lions. This match finished 1-1.

Midlands Wand. vs Lerumo Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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