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SSV Merten vs Bergisch G. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 26 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

SSV Merten

PPG 2.25 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bergisch G.

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.5%0-25.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.2%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 36.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 35.3% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSV Merten1.5

Bergisch G.1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SSV MERTEN · PPG 2.25

BERGISCH G. · PPG 2.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.25), Away EXCELLENT (2.31)

Win probability 1X2

SSV Merten (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bergisch G. (A) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSV Merten face Bergisch G. in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSV Merten a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Bergisch G. 36%, so SSV Merten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SSV Merten and 1.5 for Bergisch G. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSV Merten are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.31 for Bergisch G.. This match finished 4-1.

SSV Merten vs Bergisch G. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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