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Hennef vs Wegberg-Beeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 26 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Hennef

PPG 1.42 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wegberg-Beeck

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.2%0-27.3%0-35.7%0-4+5.8%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.4%1-37.3%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.1%2-26.0%2-34.7%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.6%3-32.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 54.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 49.0% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob58.8%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hennef1.3

Wegberg-Beeck2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HENNEF · PPG 1.42

WEGBERG-BEECK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.42), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Hennef (H) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wegberg-Beeck (A) 54.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hennef face Wegberg-Beeck in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hennef a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Wegberg-Beeck 55%, so Wegberg-Beeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hennef and 2.3 for Wegberg-Beeck (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hennef are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.50 for Wegberg-Beeck. This match finished 1-0.

Hennef vs Wegberg-Beeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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