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Duren vs Siegburger Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 26 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Duren

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Siegburger

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.9%0-26.1%0-36.4%0-4+10.9%1 1-01.6%1-14.9%1-27.7%1-38.0%1-4+13.7%2 2-01.0%2-13.1%2-24.8%2-35.0%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.0%3-32.1%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 65.6% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 63.8% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob62.5%

A 66% / xG 1.3-3.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.0%

#2 1–2✓ 7.7%

#3 0–3 6.4%

#4 1–4 6.3%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Duren1.3

Siegburger3.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUREN · PPG 1.75

SIEGBURGER · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Duren (H) 12.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siegburger (A) 65.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Duren face Siegburger in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Duren a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Siegburger 66%, so Siegburger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Duren and 3.1 for Siegburger (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Duren are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.67 for Siegburger. This match finished 1-2.

Duren vs Siegburger Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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