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Nottm Forest vs Newcastle Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Nottm Forest

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Newcastle Utd

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.8%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 39.2% 2.55 +0.5%

Draw 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.6%

Away win 32.3% 39.2% 2.55 -17.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 23.7% 36.4% 2.75 -20.9%

BTTS 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottm Forest1.3

Newcastle Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTM FOREST · PPG 1.06

NEWCASTLE UTD · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Nottm Forest (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +0.5%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.6%

Newcastle Utd (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottm Forest face Newcastle Utd in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottm Forest a 39% chance, the draw 28% and Newcastle Utd 32%, so Nottm Forest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nottm Forest and 1.2 for Newcastle Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottm Forest are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.94 for Newcastle Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Nottm Forest vs Newcastle Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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