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Crystal Palace vs Everton Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Everton

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-112.9%0-27.0%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.5%2-17.0%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.3%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 36.8% 2.72 -2.9%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Away win 35.8% 40.7% 2.46 -11.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Over 3.5 16.7% 31.3% 3.20 -27.9%

BTTS 50.9% 59.9% 1.67 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.9%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crystal Palace1.0

Everton1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.18

EVERTON · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Crystal Palace (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -2.9%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Everton (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crystal Palace face Everton in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crystal Palace a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Everton 36%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Crystal Palace and 1.1 for Everton (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crystal Palace are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.47 for Everton. This match finished 2-2.

Crystal Palace vs Everton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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