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Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Burnley

PPG 0.65 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aston Villa

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.3%0-29.3%0-35.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.1%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.7%2-16.0%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 21.1% 4.75 +18.7%

Draw 27.0% 25.0% 4.00 +4.8%

Away win 45.4% 61.0% 1.64 -25.5%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 33.3% 3.00 -9.6%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burnley1.0

Aston Villa1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BURNLEY · PPG 0.65

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.35) vs Home POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Burnley (H) 27.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +18.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.8%

Aston Villa (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burnley face Aston Villa in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burnley a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Aston Villa 45%, so Aston Villa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Burnley and 1.6 for Aston Villa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burnley are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 1.35 for Aston Villa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Premier League Predictions