Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction & Tips

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England - Premier League Regular Season - 36 Turf Moor· Burnley Sunday, May 10, 2026 13:00

Burnley PPG 0.65

2-2 MISS

Aston Villa PPG 1.35

Home· +18.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.6%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +18.7%

Draw 27.0%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +4.8%

Away 45.4%

Odds: 1.64 EV: -25.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.8% Odds: 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% Odds: 3.00 -9.6%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.80 -1.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Burnley

1.03

Aston Villa

1.64

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+18.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.35) vs Home POOR (0.65)