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Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:45

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.9%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.4%1-112.9%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.5%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 45.9% 2.18 -3.4%

Draw 29.4% 28.6% 3.50 +1.7%

Away win 26.3% 32.8% 3.05 -11.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Over 3.5 18.2% 33.3% 3.00 -27.2%

BTTS 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Plock1.3

Motor Lublin0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.80

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Plock (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -3.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.7%

Motor Lublin (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Plock face Motor Lublin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Plock a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Motor Lublin 26%, so Wisla Plock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wisla Plock and 0.9 for Motor Lublin (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Plock are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.07 for Motor Lublin. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 0-4.

Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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