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Havelse vs Schweinfurt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Havelse

PPG 1.22 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Schweinfurt

PPG 0.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.4%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.9%1-17.9%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.2%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.3%4+-24.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Away win 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

BTTS 59.2% 72.5% 1.38 -18.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.2%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Havelse2.3

Schweinfurt1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAVELSE · PPG 1.22

SCHWEINFURT · PPG 0.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.22) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Havelse (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +2.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Schweinfurt (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Havelse face Schweinfurt in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Havelse a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Schweinfurt 26%, so Havelse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Havelse and 1.3 for Schweinfurt (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Havelse are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.28 for Schweinfurt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Havelse vs Schweinfurt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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