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Dusseldorf vs Elversberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Dusseldorf

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elversberg

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-110.9%0-29.8%0-35.8%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.1%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.1%2-15.5%2-24.9%2-33.0%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Draw 25.2% 26.3% 3.80 -2.5%

Away win 52.0% 50.0% 2.00 +4.0%

Over 2.5 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%

Over 3.5 30.7% 46.5% 2.15 -34.0%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dusseldorf1.0

Elversberg1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUSSELDORF · PPG 1.31

ELVERSBERG · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Dusseldorf (H) 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.5%

Elversberg (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dusseldorf face Elversberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dusseldorf a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Elversberg 52%, so Elversberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dusseldorf and 1.8 for Elversberg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dusseldorf are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.56 for Elversberg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Dusseldorf vs Elversberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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