Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Suduva vs Zalgiris

Suduva vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:15

Suduva

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Zalgiris

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-112.3%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-17.0%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 38.2% 2.62 +9.8%

Draw 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

Away win 25.0% 40.8% 2.45 -23.3%

Over 2.5 35.1% 51.8% 1.93 -32.3%

Over 3.5 11.6% 30.3% 3.30 -37.0%

BTTS 48.2% 59.9% 1.67 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 1–1✓ 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suduva1.1

Zalgiris0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDUVA · PPG 2.33

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Suduva (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +9.8%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.6%

Zalgiris (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suduva face Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suduva a 42% chance, the draw 33% and Zalgiris 25%, so Suduva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Suduva and 0.8 for Zalgiris (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suduva are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Suduva vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions