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Piast Gliwice vs Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:15

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Katowice

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.0%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.7%1-112.4%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-18.5%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 46.3% 2.16 -19.4%

Draw 26.8% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Away win 35.9% 33.3% 3.00 +7.7%

Over 2.5 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Over 3.5 27.7% 37.7% 2.65 -16.0%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0✓ 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piast Gliwice1.4

Katowice1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.40

KATOWICE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Piast Gliwice (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -19.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

Katowice (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piast Gliwice face Katowice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Katowice 36%, so Piast Gliwice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Piast Gliwice and 1.3 for Katowice (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Katowice. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Piast Gliwice vs Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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