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Fluminense W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Fluminense W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Santos W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-111.3%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-17.0%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.6%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 50.0% 2.00 -15.0%

Draw 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Away win 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 48.8% 2.05 -28.1%

Over 3.5 10.5% 27.0% 3.70 -36.7%

BTTS 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense W1.1

Santos W0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE W · PPG 1.75

SANTOS W · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=42.5%

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense W (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.4%

Santos W (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense W face Santos W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense W a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Santos W 25%, so Fluminense W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Fluminense W and 0.7 for Santos W (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Santos W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Fluminense W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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