Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / FC Nurnberg vs Schalke 04

FC Nurnberg vs Schalke 04 Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

FC Nurnberg

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Schalke 04

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-113.2%0-28.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.4%2-16.6%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 52.6% 1.90 -34.4%

Draw 29.0% 26.7% 3.75 +5.3%

Away win 36.5% 27.8% 3.60 +31.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 63.7% 1.57 -28.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 41.7% 2.40 -33.2%

BTTS 51.9% 66.7% 1.50 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.9%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Nurnberg1.0

Schalke 041.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC NURNBERG · PPG 1.75

SCHALKE 04 · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

FC Nurnberg (H) 34.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -34.4%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.3%

Schalke 04 (A) 36.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Nurnberg face Schalke 04 in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Nurnberg a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Schalke 04 37%, so Schalke 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Nurnberg and 1.2 for Schalke 04 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Nurnberg are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Schalke 04. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 3-0.

FC Nurnberg vs Schalke 04 Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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