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Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:15

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.7%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.5%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 59.2% 1.69 -20.1%

Draw 27.2% 27.4% 3.65 -0.4%

Away win 25.5% 20.6% 4.85 +14.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Over 3.5 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

BTTS 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gornik Zabrze1.4

Zaglebie Lubin1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 2.07

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=47.3%

Win probability 1X2

Gornik Zabrze (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -20.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.4%

Zaglebie Lubin (A) 25.5%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gornik Zabrze face Zaglebie Lubin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gornik Zabrze a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Zaglebie Lubin 26%, so Gornik Zabrze are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gornik Zabrze and 1.0 for Zaglebie Lubin (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gornik Zabrze are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.20 for Zaglebie Lubin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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