Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Verl vs Viktoria Koln

Verl vs Viktoria Koln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Verl

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Viktoria Koln

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.6%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.5%1-18.2%1-25.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.3%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.2%4+-24.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 59.5% 1.68 +2.0%

Draw 19.4% 25.6% 3.90 -24.3%

Away win 20.0% 21.7% 4.60 -8.0%

Over 2.5 69.2% 61.7% 1.62 +12.1%

Over 3.5 47.8% 40.0% 2.50 +19.5%

BTTS 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.6%

H 61% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0✓ 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Verl2.3

Viktoria Koln1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VERL · PPG 1.94

VIKTORIA KOLN · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Verl (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +2.0%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -24.3%

Viktoria Koln (A) 20.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Verl face Viktoria Koln in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Verl a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Viktoria Koln 20%, so Verl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Verl and 1.3 for Viktoria Koln (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Verl are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.25 for Viktoria Koln. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Verl vs Viktoria Koln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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