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Saarbrucken vs 1860 Munchen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Saarbrucken

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

1860 Munchen

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.0%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.0%1-112.2%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 47.6% 2.10 -21.7%

Draw 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.1%

Away win 37.0% 31.3% 3.20 +18.4%

Over 2.5 51.0% 57.1% 1.75 -10.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.1%

BTTS 55.1% 63.7% 1.57 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.1%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saarbrucken1.4

1860 Munchen1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAARBRUCKEN · PPG 1.69

1860 MUNCHEN · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Saarbrucken (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.1%

1860 Munchen (A) 37.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saarbrucken face 1860 Munchen in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saarbrucken a 37% chance, the draw 26% and 1860 Munchen 37%, so Saarbrucken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Saarbrucken and 1.4 for 1860 Munchen (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saarbrucken are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.25 for 1860 Munchen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Saarbrucken vs 1860 Munchen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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