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MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

MSV Duisburg

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hoffenheim B

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+19.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.6%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.4%1-16.7%1-25.1%1-32.6%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.2%3-25.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-18.3%4+-26.3%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Draw 18.4% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

Away win 21.9% 23.8% 4.20 -8.0%

Over 2.5 76.9% 64.5% 1.55 +19.2%

Over 3.5 57.5% 42.6% 2.35 +35.1%

BTTS 71.8% 67.6% 1.48 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob71.8%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1✓ 7.2%

#3 1–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MSV Duisburg2.5

Hoffenheim B1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MSV DUISBURG · PPG 2.50

HOFFENHEIM B · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=59.7%

Win probability 1X2

MSV Duisburg (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +1.5%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -26.4%

Hoffenheim B (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

MSV Duisburg face Hoffenheim B in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MSV Duisburg a 60% chance, the draw 18% and Hoffenheim B 22%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for MSV Duisburg and 1.5 for Hoffenheim B (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MSV Duisburg are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Hoffenheim B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 3-1.

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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