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England - Premier League Saturday, May 9, 2026 16:30 
Manchester City PPG 2.44 
Brentford PPG 1.18
England - Premier League Saturday, May 9, 2026 16:30 Manchester City PPG 2.443-0 HIT CS5
Brentford PPG 1.18Away· +29.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 59.3% Odds: 1.40 -17.0%
Over 3.5 34.4% Odds: 2.00 -31.2%
BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.62 -11.6%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 3-0 ✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester City 2.04
Brentford 0.93
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -17.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -17.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+29.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+29.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 57 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 44%
BTTS/No 60%
Score Hit 44%
ROI -9.4%
Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=51.0%