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Manchester City vs Brentford Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Manchester City

PPG 2.44 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brentford

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.8%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-19.8%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.7%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 73.5% 1.36 -30.6%

Draw 26.4% 18.2% 5.50 +27.1%

Away win 22.6% 15.2% 6.60 +29.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 71.4% 1.40 -17.0%

Over 3.5 34.4% 50.0% 2.00 -31.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester City2.0

Brentford0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 2.44

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Manchester City (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -30.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +27.1%

Brentford (A) 22.6%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester City face Brentford in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester City a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Brentford 23%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Manchester City and 0.9 for Brentford (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester City are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.18 for Brentford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Manchester City vs Brentford Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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