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FC Ingolstadt vs Osnabruck Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

FC Ingolstadt

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Osnabruck

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Away 52% chance

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.9%0-29.9%0-35.4%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.4%2-15.7%2-24.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 29.0% 3.45 -23.1%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -9.3%

Away win 53.3% 51.3% 1.95 +3.9%

Over 2.5 48.9% 59.9% 1.67 -18.3%

Over 3.5 27.0% 37.0% 2.70 -27.1%

BTTS 50.4% 63.7% 1.57 -20.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob50.4%

A 53% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Ingolstadt1.0

Osnabruck1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC INGOLSTADT · PPG 1.25

OSNABRUCK · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

FC Ingolstadt (H) 22.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -23.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.3%

Osnabruck (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Ingolstadt face Osnabruck in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Ingolstadt a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Osnabruck 53%, so Osnabruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Ingolstadt and 1.7 for Osnabruck (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Ingolstadt are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.06 for Osnabruck. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 0-1.

FC Ingolstadt vs Osnabruck Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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