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Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:30

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.1%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-110.9%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.8%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 54.3% 1.84 -9.3%

Draw 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

Away win 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 63.7% 1.57 -6.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 41.7% 2.40 -21.0%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jagiellonia1.8

Pogon Szczecin1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.60

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Jagiellonia (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -9.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.6%

Pogon Szczecin (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jagiellonia face Pogon Szczecin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jagiellonia a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Pogon Szczecin 25%, so Jagiellonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Jagiellonia and 1.1 for Pogon Szczecin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jagiellonia are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Pogon Szczecin. This match finished 3-2.

Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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