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Sloboda Tuzla vs B. Gracanica Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 22 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Sloboda Tuzla

PPG 1.90 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

B. Gracanica

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-19.9%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 57.1% 1.75 -18.3%

Draw 28.2% 30.8% 3.25 -5.0%

Away win 25.1% 23.8% 4.20 +3.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 16.9% 27.9% 3.58 -23.7%

BTTS 48.9% 52.4% 1.91 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.9%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0✓ 15.3%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sloboda Tuzla1.3

B. Gracanica0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOBODA TUZLA · PPG 1.90

B. GRACANICA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sloboda Tuzla (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -18.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.0%

B. Gracanica (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sloboda Tuzla face B. Gracanica in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sloboda Tuzla a 47% chance, the draw 28% and B. Gracanica 25%, so Sloboda Tuzla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sloboda Tuzla and 0.8 for B. Gracanica (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sloboda Tuzla are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.80 for B. Gracanica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Sloboda Tuzla vs B. Gracanica Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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