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Mannheim vs Regensburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Mannheim

PPG 1.72 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Regensburg

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.2%0-24.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.8%1-19.5%1-27.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.2%3-15.2%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 43.5% 2.30 -5.9%

Draw 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

Away win 34.3% 37.0% 2.70 -7.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 67.6% 1.48 -8.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 46.5% 2.15 -3.3%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mannheim1.8

Regensburg1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANNHEIM · PPG 1.72

REGENSBURG · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Mannheim (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -5.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.2%

Regensburg (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mannheim face Regensburg in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mannheim a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Regensburg 34%, so Mannheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mannheim and 1.6 for Regensburg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mannheim are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.06 for Regensburg. This match finished 1-0.

Mannheim vs Regensburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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