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Sunderland vs Manchester Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Sunderland

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Manchester Utd

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.9%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.7%1-112.3%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 27.8% 3.60 +30.7%

Draw 27.2% 27.4% 3.65 -0.4%

Away win 36.6% 51.5% 1.94 -29.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Over 3.5 27.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.3%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0✓ 7.0%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland1.2

Manchester Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.71

MANCHESTER UTD · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +30.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.4%

Manchester Utd (A) 36.6%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland face Manchester Utd in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Manchester Utd 37%, so Manchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sunderland and 1.4 for Manchester Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.47 for Manchester Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Sunderland vs Manchester Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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