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Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Fulham

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bournemouth

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.1%0-24.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.4%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 38.8% 2.58 +12.0%

Draw 26.3% 28.2% 3.55 -4.0%

Away win 30.3% 40.3% 2.48 -24.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 33.8% 39.2% 2.55 -13.8%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham1.6

Bournemouth1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM · PPG 1.88

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Fulham (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +12.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.0%

Bournemouth (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham face Bournemouth in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Bournemouth 30%, so Fulham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fulham and 1.3 for Bournemouth (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.29 for Bournemouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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