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Urk vs ADO 20 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Urk

PPG 0.87 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ADO 20

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.87) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.3%0-25.2%0-34.2%0-4+4.6%1 1-02.8%1-16.9%1-28.4%1-36.8%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.3%2-15.5%2-26.7%2-35.4%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.2%3-13.0%3-23.6%3-32.9%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 51.4% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 57.3% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.0%

A 51% / xG 1.6-2.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–1✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urk1.6

ADO 202.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.3%

Form & verdict PPG

URK · PPG 0.87

ADO 20 · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.87) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Urk (H) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ADO 20 (A) 51.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Urk face ADO 20 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urk a 25% chance, the draw 23% and ADO 20 51%, so ADO 20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Urk and 2.4 for ADO 20 (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urk are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.33 for ADO 20. This match finished 2-1.

Urk vs ADO 20 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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