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TEC vs Excelsior 31 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

TEC

PPG 0.87 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Excelsior 31

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.87), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.4%0-24.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.4%1-19.4%1-28.1%1-34.7%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.7%3-24.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 36.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 38% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TEC1.7

Excelsior 311.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TEC · PPG 0.87

EXCELSIOR 31 · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.87), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

TEC (H) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excelsior 31 (A) 36.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TEC face Excelsior 31 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TEC a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Excelsior 31 36%, so TEC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for TEC and 1.7 for Excelsior 31 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TEC are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.07 for Excelsior 31. This match finished 1-1.

TEC vs Excelsior 31 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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